Excellent and compelling writing and insight. Spent a couple of hours also reading your links.
What are your thoughts of this new wave of investors coming into this segment but have no knowledge whatsoever of the DoD, procurement, Navy etc- and think it will be a walk in the park if they invest in the next USV, UUV and all the acronyms under the sun?
I'm amped about the capital. My biggest concern is getting the DoD Customer Acquisition Cycle to speed up to match the Capital Cycle... if it lags too much there will be a bubble and something will pop it
I understand that building cost intensive complex hardware systems is not what startups should do…but it still begs the question, who should if the primes (while set up to do it) are not delivering at the scale and speed required in today’s day and age? Same can be said for legacy industry incumbents like Bechtel founded in the late 1800s.
One way I see to drive the primes to improve is to: 1) change contracting incentives (ex: encourage the use of fixed firm price contracts which heavily incentivize efficiency), and 2) encourage the primes to partner with startups -- this can make the primes more efficient if the primes for example buy productivity tools from startups, and can also make the primes products better if they're equipped with startup technology (SW layers, more off the shelf cheap HW, etc).
The Process is consuming the money meant for the Product.
In so doing this process provides income over the course of a career indeed multiple generations of careers, this is a Trust Fund in effect.
See for other examples the Boston Big Dig or the NYC Ice Rink that set young Donald Trump off… they used to be called cost overruns. Now they’re just “process” and Rule Of Law.
Anything taking over a reasonable amount of time is a de facto Trust Fund for the PM etc. and PMC.
And 10~20 years isn’t reasonable.
Look at WW2. Now we can’t surge to 37% of GDP, however that many ships and planes aren’t needed.
The process is consuming the product. However the timelines are extended to provide a career’s worth of income. In 2020 Arnold Punnaro USMC RET (MG) wrote “The Ever Shrinking Fighting Force.” Among many illuminations was from Pentagon action officer to SECDEF a total of 27 signatures. This is a public works scam, not the arsenal of anything, the Arsenal of Democracy is now The Arbitrage of Bureaucracy.
Sir, the Process that is Proce$$ is the outcome. Now any department or business and yes government will do this if left unattended long enough…
And apparently it’s been unattended since 1989 .
We languished in the 90s.
Later In GWOT the rule was SPEND and don’t oversee or nothing will happen, given the process that’s unfortunately true.
The 27 signatures must be reduced to 4-5 and the old rule of speak up or silence means assent must return. That doesn’t mean unattended. Unattended a vast amount of money for a trifling amount of product happens.
Important information; productive suggestions and insights; great read!
Get this thing on foreign affairs. Great piece.
Excellent and compelling writing and insight. Spent a couple of hours also reading your links.
What are your thoughts of this new wave of investors coming into this segment but have no knowledge whatsoever of the DoD, procurement, Navy etc- and think it will be a walk in the park if they invest in the next USV, UUV and all the acronyms under the sun?
I'm amped about the capital. My biggest concern is getting the DoD Customer Acquisition Cycle to speed up to match the Capital Cycle... if it lags too much there will be a bubble and something will pop it
I understand that building cost intensive complex hardware systems is not what startups should do…but it still begs the question, who should if the primes (while set up to do it) are not delivering at the scale and speed required in today’s day and age? Same can be said for legacy industry incumbents like Bechtel founded in the late 1800s.
One way I see to drive the primes to improve is to: 1) change contracting incentives (ex: encourage the use of fixed firm price contracts which heavily incentivize efficiency), and 2) encourage the primes to partner with startups -- this can make the primes more efficient if the primes for example buy productivity tools from startups, and can also make the primes products better if they're equipped with startup technology (SW layers, more off the shelf cheap HW, etc).
Is the shipbuilding process building ships?
Or given the time and cost involved- is the process results Trust Funds by another name?
Not sure I understand this question - would love to hear more?
The Process is consuming the money meant for the Product.
In so doing this process provides income over the course of a career indeed multiple generations of careers, this is a Trust Fund in effect.
See for other examples the Boston Big Dig or the NYC Ice Rink that set young Donald Trump off… they used to be called cost overruns. Now they’re just “process” and Rule Of Law.
Anything taking over a reasonable amount of time is a de facto Trust Fund for the PM etc. and PMC.
And 10~20 years isn’t reasonable.
Look at WW2. Now we can’t surge to 37% of GDP, however that many ships and planes aren’t needed.
The process is consuming the product. However the timelines are extended to provide a career’s worth of income. In 2020 Arnold Punnaro USMC RET (MG) wrote “The Ever Shrinking Fighting Force.” Among many illuminations was from Pentagon action officer to SECDEF a total of 27 signatures. This is a public works scam, not the arsenal of anything, the Arsenal of Democracy is now The Arbitrage of Bureaucracy.
Clear enough I think.
(Kindly cease the ingénue … )
cheers.
Great examples, this makes sense. WAY too much process in DoD acquisitions. In fact it's all about the process, not the outcome
Sir, the Process that is Proce$$ is the outcome. Now any department or business and yes government will do this if left unattended long enough…
And apparently it’s been unattended since 1989 .
We languished in the 90s.
Later In GWOT the rule was SPEND and don’t oversee or nothing will happen, given the process that’s unfortunately true.
The 27 signatures must be reduced to 4-5 and the old rule of speak up or silence means assent must return. That doesn’t mean unattended. Unattended a vast amount of money for a trifling amount of product happens.
It means mass retirement.